2011 Melbourne Cup

innsaneink

innsaneink

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Whats peoples thoughts on this years big race?

I used to steer clear of the cup at one stage when I was punting sorta regulalrly, thousands of easier races the other 364 days of the year to try find a winner, even harder these days with all the international entrys.

Dont punt much nowadays, so I might have a little something this year on **9 LUCAS CRANACH**, a fair 5th in the Clfld cup being tracked wide, looked a nice run….chuck in 3 DUNADEN, 11 PRECEDENCE & 17 AT FIRST SIGHT

Btw Ive no idea
 
Wait till i see a accurate weather forecast before I start throwing out prediction

So hard when you can't measure the overseas raiders form against our 2 milers
 
@underdog said:
any half decent hot tips?

is Americain worth the flutter?
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if you saw his run in the MV Cup, you would think he might as well pack the trophy again. But this is horse racing and over 3200m and 24 starters, anything can happen…

I cant go past Americain, but I was silently impressed with Niwot's ride in the McKinnon on Saturday. I was also impressed with Illo's run last week and considering Bart was smiling after its run, you gotta include it in your multiples.
 
@Tiger Watto said:
@underdog said:
any half decent hot tips?

is Americain worth the flutter?

if you saw his run in the MV Cup, you would think he might as well pack the trophy again. But this is horse racing and over 3200m and 24 starters, anything can happen…

I cant go past Americain, but I was silently impressed with Niwot's ride in the McKinnon on Saturday. I was also impressed with Illo's run last week and considering Bart was smiling after its run, you gotta include it in your multiples.
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If Niwot can get a wet track it is a big show especially seeing the advantages it will have in the weights
Barrier 15 would worry me with Americain and the extra weight and the fact it will be a marked horse ….
 
Americain looked the goods last week and deserves favouritism. I'm gonna throw a tenner on Jukebox Jury. Word is he's the best of the imports
 
I like Niwot for an each way. Shocking did the Lexus/MC double two years ago and Maluckyday ran a great second to Americain last year after winning it, so it's probably the best form guide in recent years. Other than Americain itself, Jukebox Jury, Illo, Lucas Cranach and Dunaden are the likelies. I think Jukebox Jury first, Niwot second and Americain to run on third after a marked run.
 
My roughie would be Mourayan at the moment Was really finishing on well on the weekend and will get the distance
 
@MacDougall said:
Ahhh that's the one I forgot about. I like Mourayan.

Hell, if Americain doesn't win there are chances all across the field.
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x 2… Mourayan is a frustrating horse to bet on as you just dont know if they want the horse to win... But is clearly capable and had a good 'warm-up' on Saturday.

I'm not sure Americain is a horse which can be marked considering its imposing size. I'm sure they will do there best, but if it gets a run at the top of the straight, it looks like it has a very long stride. Has anyone else noticed its full stride appears longer than most horses?
 
Lol there's gotta be a reason The Verminator and Older than Time are in the field. Watch them box in Americain for the first quarter. If Americain wins this year it'll be a brilliant run because I have no doubt the VRC and Aussie Racing Community want an Aussie winner this year. That's another reason I think Niwot will win.
 
It's a pity that Maluckyday had such an unlucky season. A good year following that awesome run last year would have made it the winner imo. If it can recover for next year it'll win. It's an awesome horse.
 
ive narrowed the field to eleven potenitial placings but gotta say Americain will be hard to beat, Niwot second and Dunaden 3rd
 
@MacDougall said:
It's a pity that Maluckyday had such an unlucky season. A good year following that awesome run last year would have made it the winner imo. If it can recover for next year it'll win. It's an awesome horse.
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Very true Mac Would be favourite in my opinion at best form
 
Hi everyone

I'll put the house (or maybe just my shirt) on Precedence!! Lots of research went into this tip!!

Tigergran
 
For those who have mentioned Mourayan - be wary because it is is getting bar plates inserted - these are generally not a good sign and suggest that the horse has a hoof problem.

Americain is a horse to beat - however top weights don't win very often, and only four horses have ever won the MC back to back. It is worth noting also that both Dunaden and Jukebox Jury have beaten Americain in Europe.

I really can't see any of the Aussie horses winning it this year, Niwot is the obvious best hope - but I am not convinced of the form out the Lexus. The money coming in for it does suggest that it is a good chance though.

The Kraut horse Lucas Cranach ran a slashing cup trial in the Caufield, and funnily enough it was wearing bar plates - the plates come off which almost immediately improves a horses run. I think the big Flemington track will suit, and at this stage (got some form reading to do yet) it is one of my top chances.

I am really not a fan of Bart Cummings runners this year, Precedence in particular has done nothing this preparation. But they say you can never write a Bart horse off - when Viewed won a few years back it had been pretty ordinary in its lead-up.

Another two rules that I have is to not back international horses who haven't had a lead-up run in Australia, and I don't like on-pacers (horses that like to lead) because in modern times the Cup has rarely been won by a horse that likes to lead. There is simply to much pressure in a 20+ horse field, with half a dozen horses jostling for a position in the lead pack. This knocks the wind out of the horse, and allows swoopers from the back of the field to make a run down the long straight.

And in typical horse racing fashion - I would suggest you read this post, and pick horses based on the exact opposite of what I have said. You are sure to find the winner!
 
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